Risk Is Not a Spreadsheet — It’s a Mindset

What the Marines Taught Me About Risk (And Why It Matters for Project Leaders)

What the Marines Taught Me About Risk (And Why It Matters for Project Leaders)

From Iraq to PM Frameworks

It’s been 20 years since I was in Iraq. And a recent article from Marine Corps Association brings a strong reminder of events that although I wasn’t directly involved, changed me and many of my friends.

 

May 7, 2005, Haditha, Iraq. I was 19 years old, a lance corporal in the United States Marine Corps, when the events in the above article hit my unit. That night, everything changed in my life as I saw the brutalities of war hit people I knew.
I wasn’t in the direct firefight, but the echoes of the chaos—explosions, shouts, hell, and the realization that people I’d trained with had been wounded or killed —left a mark on me that would define my career.
What I didn’t realize at the time, but have realized over time: 
Risk isn’t something you log in a spreadsheet. Risk is everywhere, all the time—and it’s a mindset.
You can’t control everything, but you can train, plan, and anticipate like lives depend on it—because sometimes, they do.
Something you see in this article that Sgt Watkins took to heart as he trained the Marines of Map 7. Preparing them for what was to come!

Early Lessons: The Cost of Not Being Ready

Marines at the Haditha Dam, Haditha, Iraq
At 19, I learned hard and fast how fragile plans can be. I saw and witnessed uncertainty in action. And the ripple effects of when those uncertainties hit without the right plan or follow on actions.
I internalized something you can’t learn in a classroom: risk awareness isn’t about avoiding danger. It’s about accepting uncertainty and doing everything possible to stack the odds in your favor.
That lesson changed how I looked at every challenge there after, from future military deployments to leading business projects and starting 44Risk PM.
’Proactive over Reactive’ is not just a tagline for me.
It’s a way of thinking I developed over years of watching people succeed with being proactive and struggle with being reactive.

Learning From the Past: From Haditha to Kabul

Fast forward a decade—Afghanistan, 2015.
Now, I was the one making the plans, supporting operations in the unpredictable environment of
But the lessons from Haditha were still front and center in my head.

Preparation wasn’t a checkbox. 

Although there was an effort to “downsize” and become more expeditionary. I ran “what if” scenarios in my office and decided to keep materials staged for both expeditionary operations and worst case scenario’s.
Building up an emergency stock of materials, just in case.
Even though a few people thought I was crazy. We had the space and I kept the equipment out of the way.
It wasn’t until the phone rang late one night. Our Headquarters in Kabul had been attacked. Their power was out, the building where they had their kitchen was destroyed, and their water stocks were damaged.
And I was able to jump into action.
Within 24 hours, I had extra water diverted their way, generators on flights in, and an expeditionary field kitchen set delivered. All items that I had secured and staged for an event like this.
It was also the relationship I had built over the six months I’d been in the role that helped us out. When I started knocking on doors at 3am and making calls, people answered and reacted. Knowing that this was an emergency where I needed their help!
We never faced the same kind of chaos as Haditha, but the sense of readiness kept everyone sharper—and safer.

Why It Still Matters: From Uniform to 44Risk PM

When I left the Marines, I feel there is a gap around risk management in the business world.
Too often, risk gets either buried in checklists or reduced to a line item for compliance. But the world has only gotten more unpredictable.
That’s why I built 44Risk PM. I wanted to teach project and risk professionals the leadership discipline that isn’t in most textbooks: how to anticipate the unknown, prepare for the unthinkable, and make risk a living, breathing part of project culture.
This isn’t just my story.
It’s the reality PMI is now calling for. According to PMI’s 2025 Pulse of the Profession, the project leaders who stand out today aren’t just checking boxes—they’re becoming strategic partners.
They build business acumen, speak the language of value, and adapt fast to uncertainty—just like leaders must in combat.
PMI 2025 Pulse of the Profession Business Acumen Insights for Project Managers

Lessons for Every Project Leader

Here are three hard-won truths I wish every project manager understood:
1. Prepare for the Unknown
Risk management is about planning for the things that never go as planned. Assume the plan will break—then practice what you’ll do next.
2. Leadership Over Checklists
Spreadsheets and risk registers are tools, not answers. Real risk leadership is about readiness, communication, and decisive action under pressure.
3. Continuous Readiness
Stay vigilant. Don’t get comfortable. The strongest teams are always asking: “What if? What’s next?”—and running the drills before the emergency.
Here are three hard-won truths I wish every project manager understood:

Takeaway: Are You Ready for What’s Next?

Risk isn’t a checkbox—it’s a mindset and a leadership discipline.
The project leaders who thrive today are the ones who treat risk as more than paperwork—they lead their teams with vigilance, adaptability, and the courage to prepare for the unknown.
My challenge to you:
  • How prepared are you, really?
  • Are you leading with a risk mindset, or just filling out forms?
  • Are you ready for the day your plan gets shattered?
If you want to go deeper, read my full story about Haditha: iconMca-marinesAmbush in Haditha: A Footnote from Iraq, 20 Years Later – Marine Corps Association , or join one of our 44Risk PM trainings to start building true risk readiness for yourself and your team.
Stay ready. Stay resilient.
-Russ
Leadership Principles for Project Managers
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